A gold seed fanning out into probability paths

Account ruin simulator

ESMA data shows 74-89% of retail traders lose money. ASIC FY2024: 68% of retail CFD investors lost a combined A$458m. Run a Monte Carlo on your strategy and see what the long run looks like.

Parameters (auto-recompute)

Starting balance ($)$10,000Risk per trade %1.0%Win rate %50%Payoff ratio (R:R)1.5RNumber of trades500

Simulations

Monte Carlo runs locally in your browser.

Ruin probability

0.0%

Max drawdown

17.9%

Median ending balance

$33,520

Longest recovery (trades)

132

Single path

One random trading path — see the deepest drawdown before recovery

Seed: 12345

This lesson trains a judgement framework — it doesn't issue trade instructions. Your actual entries, sizing and invalidation are yours to decide, and yours to own.